Place: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough)
Time: 3:00 PM EST (1/22/12)
Network: CBS
Players to Watch: Tom Brady (Patriots) and Ray Rice (Ravens)
Honestly speaking I believe that New England was fortunate to draw the Denver Broncos, because my opinion is that the Pats would have lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers just like in their previous regular season match-up. The primary reasons? Defense and the ability to neutralize Wes Welker. The defense part Baltimore has down pat with coordinator Chuck Pagano at the helm. Pagano isn’t afraid to blitz much like former New Orleans Saints DC Gregg Williams, but the much larger task on Sunday afternoon will be getting cornerbacks Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb, and Cary Williams to physically manhandle and take Welker out of the game. No easy feat for any defensive coach, especially with Rob Gronkowski dominating opponents week-in and week-out plus Bill Belichick’s new wrinkle on offense employing tight end Aaron Hernandez out of the backfield.
Offensively, a heavy burden rests on Joe Flacco’s shoulders. Fair or not he’s been getting the Mark Sanchez treatment in recent weeks despite a 5-3 career playoff record. This week in particular before perhaps the biggest game in Flacco’s career, the mainstream media blew up star safety Ed Reed’s comments out of proportion and made it seem as if Baltimore’s #20 didn’t believe in the heavily criticized quarterback. John Harbaugh is a good enough head coach to outfox Belichick and take the game out of Flacco’s hands by implementing a heavy dose of Ray Rice. Rice will wear down the New England defense with increased effectiveness as the game goes on. The Patriots’ defense gives up a lot of yards and can be scored on rather easily. I also expect at least one big play out of speedy receiver Torrey Smith. New England’s D performed a lot better than expected last week against the Broncos, but let’s face it the Baltimore Ravens are a completely different animal. Anquan Boldin might be the most physical receiver in the league and Baltimore has their own pair of young tight ends in Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. The one key player for New England that the Ravens’ offensive line has to look out for is Rob Ninkovich.
For New England and Belichick, their biggest achilles’ heel is defense. Everyone knows their offense led by golden boy Tom Brady is filled with weapons and certainly Super Bowl caliber, but that might not be enough especially if Harbaugh is wise enough to control time of possession and keep the football out of Brady’s hands. Also, their running attack with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley is decent but not quite good enough to put a dent in Pagano’s defense. New England won’t run effectively enough to open up passing lanes for Brady. I refuse to believe that the Ravens’ D will honor the run at all. Pressure on Brady will be Baltimore’s greatest asset from Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, and Jarrett Johnson. Tom Brady will have to pull of a superhuman performance to carry the Patriots to Indianapolis.
My prediction: Ravens 24 Patriots 21. Lots of carries for Rice to wear down New England’s defense. Torrey Smith scores on a long touchdown reception. Brady experiences moderate success but not enough to earn the victory against Baltimore’s hard-nosed defense.
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