Game 1: Monday (5/28/12) at 8:30 PM EST (ESPN).
Perhaps in a bit of fortune, the aging Boston Celtics earned an Eastern Conference Finals berth and the highly criticized Miami Heat dodged a bullet in the form of Derrick Rose’s unfortunate knee injury and the Chicago Bulls’ premature first-round exit at the hands of the Philadelphia Sixers. There’s no secret that the older Boston team did itself a disservice playing thirteen out of a possible fourteen playoff games in the first two rounds against Atlanta and Philadelphia. Celtics could have done better to close out both series, but that’s merely hindsight now. Having recently closed out the Sixers just Saturday night, Boston will have to shake off nagging injuries to key players to perform well in the ECF opener tonight on a short two days of rest. Two of the largest problems for Doc Rivers are: Jeff Green’s season-ending injury that prevented him from playing at all in the 2011-2012 NBA campaign. Green is lengthy, versatile, and solid defensively. Potentially, Doc could have matched up Jeff Green on LeBron James to spell Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. The second major issue being Avery Bradley’s playoff-ending shoulder surgery. Bradley is far and away Boston’s best on-the-ball perimeter defender, and likely an effective solution to curbing Dwayne Wade’s offensive effectiveness and ability to get to the rim. Now it seems Doc must put Pierce on LeBron and Allen on Wade, probably limiting both Boston stars’ offensive output as a result. Allen is not fully healthy and his jumper isn’t in usual form to begin with. Pierce is the consummate NBA closer, but he hasn’t quite looked like “The Truth” we’ve come to expect in the playoffs and more importantly fourth-quarters. In Game 7 against Philly, Rajon Rondo emerged as the closer when Pierce fouled out on an untimely and controversial offensive foul late in the fourth-quarter. Rondo must have a big series exploiting Mario Chalmers if Erik Spoelstra does in fact choose to place defensive responsibilities on the former Kansas Jayhawk guard. It’s quite possible Coach Spo goes to Wade or even LeBron if Rondo easily gets to the paint and creates easy opportunities for Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass. Bass has been solid, particularly in Game 5 in the Philadelphia series, chipping in a surprising playoff career-high of 27 points. However, Bass is no Glen “Big Baby” Davis offensively with the mid-range jump shot and doesn’t hustle quite as much as Davis on the boards and for loose balls either. Speaking of Garnett, K.G. will have to exploit Miami’s interior players Ronny Turiaf, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, and Shane Battier. The problem being that Garnett is more effective with his mid-range jumper as opposed to posting up within five feet of the basket and displaying efficient post moves. That role is better suited for players like Andrew Bynum and Dwight Howard.
For Miami, one of the major keys is Chris Bosh’s return from a moderately severe abdominal strain which kept him out of much of the Indiana series. It’s understandable that the Heat and Coach Spoelstra expect Bosh to play through the injury, initially a four-to-six week recovery but now a two-to-three week timetable. Many believe the best strategy for Miami is running the break and allowing LeBron to facilitate much like Magic Johnson, while Wade assumes the role of closer a la Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant. LeBron James has looked better in the 2012 Playoffs with closing in the fourth-quarter, namely the effort to oust the Pacers in Game 6. However, LeBron simply doesn’t look comfortable in the Jordan role. Listening to the media and forcing a potential go-ahead shot is not Bron’s style. In truth, basketball fans shouldn’t have a problem with LeBron’s penchant for deferring to Wade or other teammates in clutch situations. Advanced statistics would support that both LeBron James and Chris Paul are actually more efficient than Kobe Bryant in late-game situations, based on points per possession in closing minutes. Making the right basketball play in the style of Magic Johnson is something Bron is gifted at, now it’s just a matter of the role players doing their job when it counts. Chalmers has proven he can provide timely scoring and big baskets with 25 points in Game 3 against Indiana, but the young guard must be more consistent in the Boston series. Something like 10 to 15 points per game would be a welcome bonus for Coach Spoelstra. Haslem was huge late in Game 4 to aid LeBron’s monster effort with mid-range jumpers. Battier started to warm up in Game 5 against the Pacers but he must continue to provide leadership, stability, and defensive strength. Mike Miller is battling back spasms rendering his jumper near useless. Once again, LeBron and Wade will have to log very heavy minutes leading into a potential Finals match-up against either Oklahoma City or San Antonio. OKC is young and energetic, while the Spurs are wily veterans with tremendous depth. Doc Rivers is only second to San Antonio’s Gregg Poppovich for best NBA coaches. Looking ahead, things don’t look too bright for the winner of a potentially grueling Eastern Conference Finals series.
My ultimate prediction: Heat in 6 if Bosh plays significant minutes in the series, Heat in 7 if he doesn’t see the floor much. Celtics are extremely well-coached and defensively disciplined, but LeBron and Wade prove to be too much offensively. Miami’s role players will contribute enough through Rio, Battier, and Haslem.
